When Russian tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border on 24 February and reports surfaced of a parallel attack against the satellite provider Viasat, an ominous signal was given that the war had also escalated in cyberspace.
Since the invasion, however, the Viasat incident—which triggered outages in satellite communications but turned out to have limited tactical effects—remains one of the most notable destructive cyber operations so far in the ongoing war. The lack of large-scale destructive cyber operations that would have a long-term impact and significantly influence the military campaign has surprised many observers. Exploring why destructive cyber operations thus far have seemingly been of limited use or success allows for a better understanding of the role of cyber operations in modern conflicts and raises awareness of the threat posed by Russia.
First and foremost, the reasons for the limited nature of destructive cyber conflict are undeniably rooted in effective defences. The resilience of Ukrainians on the physical battleground is reflected in their capabilities in cyberspace. Since the Maidan Revolution, Ukraine has been forced to harden its defences by going through tough and unique ‘training’, as it became a testbed for advanced Russian cyber operations, including two somewhat successful attacks against its energy infrastructure in 2015 and 2016. Strong ties with Western governmental agencies and the tech sector have also proven to be remarkably effective and an important success factor since the invasion. Russian military failures on the ground provide a relevant signal a ..
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