Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX who now runs the family-office-style fund Maelstrom, believes the macro cocktail that ignited Bitcoin’s six-fold advance from late 2022 into early 2025 is being mixed again. Speaking on the “Forward Guidance” podcast just minutes after a market-soothing Trump press conference, Hayes said the present environment “feels like November 2022.” Can Bitcoin Increase Sixfold Again? In Hayes’s telling, the fulcrum of the next impulse is not the Federal Reserve but the US Treasury. “People forgot about the other side of the equation,” he argued. “Yellen printed two-and-a-half trillion dollars just by switching issuance to bills, and now Scott Bessent is talking about Treasury buybacks—another form of stealth quantitative easing that needs no input from the Fed.” Hayes cited his own arithmetic from the previous episode: between September 2022 and early 2025, Bitcoin rose roughly 6x while the Fed’s balance sheet was ostensibly shrinking, a move he attributes almost entirely to Treasury-engineered liquidity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Explodes Above $94,000 — What’s Igniting The Fire? That dynamic, he contends, has returned. The Trump administration’s initial “maximalist” tariff ..
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