A thesis I cannot prove but I believe: We are witnessing the world’s first war where open source intelligence is providing more actionable insights than classified sources.
Tiktok provided direct evidence of the nature of troop and equipment movements. Commercial imagery showed field deployment locations, field hospitals, then proof of movement to invade. Dating apps provided indications of which military units are being deployed. Twitter gave a platform for highly skilled deeply experienced open source analysts to provide insights. And cloud connected smartphones with a wide range of capabilities throughout Ukraine gave direct tactical insights into how the war was and is being prosecuted. Open source analysts are listening into and translating military communications. Cybersecurity analysts and cyber threat intelligence companies are sharing indicators of incidents faster than ever and before any tipping and queuing by government sources. Historians with great context on culture and history are more rapidly collaborating and sharing relevant insights. And much of this is supported by new tools and applications and collaborative environments for individuals and non government groups.
All of this means, I believe, that this is the world’s first war where open source intelligence is the dominate source.
Background:
Open Source Intelligence is a phrase I’ve known since I began a career in the intelligence community in 1982. By that time the intelligence community had already spent decades developing processes to leverage information produced by adversaries (even though what they say would have a propaganda slant it provided useful insights). For example, one of the most widely known feeds of open source intelligence at the time ..
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