And what of Putin? His standing is irrecoverably changed. He promised a hard crackdown when he finally emerged to speak to the Russian people, but then backed down in the wake of Prigozhin’s decision to halt the march on Moscow. The fact that the President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus had to intercede has also made Putin look weak. There is no hiding Putin’s weakness now from the Russian elite, his security services and his citizens. As such, Russia today appears far more brittle. It is almost inevitable that someone else will again exploit this weakness from within. As Russia expert Mark Galeotti has written, “When history records the downfall of the Russian president, it will say the endgame started here”.
What does this mean for the war in Ukraine?
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The best outcome is that internal frictions in Russia – between the army and Wagner, between Prigozhin and the military leadership – will be a distraction for Russian leaders and that it draws away some of the elite, loyal Russian army units to defend Russian borders, and Moscow. This might then provide additional opportunities for Ukrainian breakthroughs in their current offensives.
The worst outcome is that Putin, under pressure from hardliners, doubles down on Ukraine. This could involve another round of mobilisations and stepped-up attacks on vulnerable civilians and critical infrastructure in Ukraine. Additionally, there is potential for Putin to appoint a new commander in Ukraine. As tough as the current going is for them, General Valery Gerasimov has been a relatively inept commander. The Ukrainians probably don’t want him rep ..
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